Water on my mind (Photo: Scott MacKenzie)

As the rains fall here in Northern California, and snowstorms pound the Northeast of the United States, water is on my mind. It is a topic that is of vital importance but continues to be misunderstood. Perhaps most importantly, it is at the center of considerations that must be taken into account in considering how humanity will adapt to climate change.

A recent article in Reuters highlighted this very issue, discussing how “water should have a more central role in debates on food security, peace, climate change and recovery from the financial crisis.”

More to the point, “efforts to combat global warming will themselves put more strains on water because of rival economic demands — such as for irrigation, biofuels or hydropower.”

I recently came across this presentation by Geoff Dabelko at the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program, on the role of water and water security more broadly. He is at the forefront of thinking on the interface between the environment, human vulnerability, and security issues, and I found this quick video to be a good refresher.

Although it was relegated to second tier status at COP-15, water remains one of the most important issues surrounding climate change and sustainable development across the planet.  With drier and drier years ahead for many parts of the world, but particularly already vulnerable areas such as Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia, beginning the dialog process on water issues is a crucial step to ensuring that the strain of scarcity is handled cooperatively, and not through violence and conflict.

Although it is not always to the top headline, water security issues permeate the news. Recent surveys from Iraq show water to be a top issue for most people (along with electricity and basic utilities more generally), and as Circle of Blue reports, “Water supply problems because of war, under-investment, poor management and drought are evident throughout Iraq. In Baghdad, where nearly 15 percent of its 8 million residents do not have access to potable water, officials are trying to gain control over the distribution system.”

Another article from Circle of Blue paints an equally difficult picture next door, with water woes in Syria. Most recently, water was a topic on the table as India and Pakistan met in high level talks for the first time since the Mumbai terrorist attacks over a year ago.

There is evidence that water can in fact be a conduit for cooperation, even in areas of high tension and distrust. Despite years of brutal conflict and war, India and Pakistan have been able to maintain open dialog on the sharing of the Indus river, and the 10 African nations that share the Nile river are actively communicating to ensure that the river’s resources are not exhausted by in a manner that would adversely impact downstream partners. Perhaps one of the more successful efforts so far, is the Mekong river in Southeast Asia, where Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Laos have active mechanisms in place to help guide governance of the waterway and the disputed issues that arise along with it.

But while these steps are important reminders of the possibilities, they are not indicative of the outlook in its entirety, and more of a snapshot of what steps in the right direction look like. Water remains largely misunderstood as an international issue, and is frequently hyped as the next great source of conflict and wars. This is not an entirely accurate representation. To get more of a sense of what the Future Faces of Water Conflict may look like, watch another ECSP video below with Dabelko and Ken Conca, from the University of Maryland.

Everything always looks a bit brighter after it rains

This past week my girlfriend and I headed south through California to enjoy a little retreat together before an extended time apart. It is a drive I have done countless times, but it is considerably more enjoyable with company. We started off in Davis, and drove all the way south to San Diego, with plans to head back north through Los Angeles and then Santa Barbara on our way home toward San Francisco, and for Lisa, then off to Cambodia.

This past summer we made a similar drive down I-5 but were met with very different views. January and February have been wet months in California and instead of wide blue skies we were met with gray ones. In September 2009 water was on a lot of people’s minds in California, and none more so than the farmers of Central California. The state’s three yearlong drought (with a fourth on the way) had been especially hard on the Central Valley’s agricultural heartland, and there were dusty reminders of those troubles everywhere you looked (see a previous post on California’s drought and water woes).

Caught in a downpour in Pacific Palisades, near Santa Monica

A Wet 2010

Driving down the same stretch five months later, the Central Valley was lush from what has so far been a wet winter. The golden straw grass covering the hills last September was now a deep green, and the wind swept dust now patted down into darker earthen browns. The drought in California is not over, however, and even in an El Niño year, reservoirs continue to be vulnerably low across the state. Experts are predicting that even with heavy rains so far this year, there is a ways to go before reaching average, if that happens. It is an interesting reminder of the psychological disconnect most people experience with water issues here: “if it is such a wet winter, then how are we still in a drought?”

Slippity-Do-Da, Slippity-Day

Tsunami evacuation route signs in San Diego

After Passing through the Grapevine and inching through Los Angeles, we reached San Diego late in the evening of our first day. Southern California had been on the receiving end of several large weather systems in recent weeks, and while the water was welcomed, its arrival has touched off a new set of concerns that comes with the dry years the region has endured. The fires that have scorched countless hillsides and homes in Southern California these last few years have also removed much of the vegetative cover that buffer against erosion and landslides during periods of heavy rain. Combined with extensive development and less permeable surface area to absorb heavy rains, a great deal of land in the region, and the expensive hillside homes upon it, is in danger of landslides. Given the popularity of building in this terrain throughout the state, the threat of entire hillside developments slipping from their foundations is considerable.

Standing atop the bluffs in Torrey Pines overlooking the Pacific Ocean, one can see what the natural course of erosion along the coast looks like. Without housing developments to inhibit and alter the land’s natural changes, the inlets upon inlets of water runoff that slither across the bluffs makes for a beautiful collage. Even in its dryness and slow steady decline into the sea, it is scenes like these that make more sense to me. Especially in contrast to the buffeted hillsides holding up multi-million dollar homes, seemingly in constant opposition to the land’s logical direction.

Another part of coastal Southern California that jumped out at me was the recent installment of tsunami evacuation signs in some coastal communities where they had not been present prior. While California and the West Coast as a whole does have an early warning system in place, these new signs are akin to a layer of fresh paint. Walking along the beach in La Jolla Shores you can see their merit. A great deal of the development there is right at sea level, and were a tsunami to come, much of it would be inundated. But tsunamis are not the only advance of water San Diegans will have to plan for. From my view the more gradual advance of sea level rise will also have to be incorporated into that as well, a slow tsunami if you will. It will be interesting to see how that all affects real estate in the area over the next 30 – 40 years.

Nature: ∞, People: ?

Driving up the PCH is one of the great joys of a California road trip, but it is also a dangerous road in parts. This time around the stretch from Santa Monica to Malibu was in a precarious state. I asked my friend Teresa to give Lisa and I a locals tour of erosion in the area and she was happy to oblige. Erosion, landslides and fires are a fact of life in these parts, and many of the residents offer personal anecdotes of the closeness to which a blaze approached or of the neighbors property that slid down the hill. Erosion along the PCH is particularly bad, and every time the rains come folks worry about the roads and the homes along the steep bluffs above them. In the 1960s a significant chunk of the hillside came down and transportation planners had to adjust the direction of the PCH to accommodate the land’s changes.

Here are some pics of what the hillsides look like now.

Every journey can teach us something new and more. I Look forward to exploring erosion and land use planning in Southern California more in future posts. But now, Santa Barbara awaits us.

Every time I end up at GOOD.is, I find something sweet. Check out this gem (click for larger image):

Bless the Italians. Sustainability is sexy.

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I just finished watching a stunning visual documentary by Yann Arthus-Bertrand called HOME. The film, released last summer and available to watch free online, shows our planet in all of its natural beauty through high definition aerial photography. But accompanying this natural beauty, are images depicting a wide range of the global environmental problems routinely discussed here such as deforestation, climate change, water shortages, and poverty.

By putting a human face and bringing to life these problems, the film has a very powerful message: that we humans have dramatically altered not only the majority of the planet’s landscape, but the fundamental chemistry of the atmosphere and oceans. And without a dramatic change in our current trajectory, we will push many of these the planets already stressed systems past the breaking point.

While most many of the visuals are a bit depressing, the film ends on a positive note with a series of positive actions and trends being taken around the world. As the narrator says, “It’s too late to be a pessimist.”

I encourage you to watch the film. You won’t be disappointed.

]]> http://projectgroundswell.com/2009/11/30/home-the-movie/feed/ 0 http://projectgroundswell.com/2009/11/21/weekly-ground-up-112109/ http://projectgroundswell.com/2009/11/21/weekly-ground-up-112109/#comments Sun, 22 Nov 2009 04:54:48 +0000 Scott MacKenzie http://projectgroundswell.com/?p=321 The US and China Unveil Clean Energy Collaboration During President Obama’s visit to China, the two countries presented a comprehensive strategy for collaborative efforts focused on clean energy and low carbon technologies. Read some analysis by Julian Wong at Climate Progress and at his blog, the Green Leap Forward. South Korea Pledges Aggressive Emission Cuts [...]]]>

The US and China Unveil Clean Energy Collaboration
During President Obama’s visit to China, the two countries presented a comprehensive strategy for collaborative efforts focused on clean energy and low carbon technologies. Read some analysis by Julian Wong at Climate Progress and at his blog, the Green Leap Forward.

South Korea Pledges Aggressive Emission Cuts
South Korea laid out voluntary plans to reduce greenhouse gases 30% of current levels by 2020. The effort could put more pressure on developed nations to agree to stricter targets, and position South Korea as a leader in transitioning toward a low-carbon economy. Read more here.

Solar Technology and Leap-frogging to Sustainability
An article from the good folks at GOOD about the importance of solar power in sustainable development for the world’s rural poor. Check it out.

The Role of Agriculture in Driving Greenhouse Gas Emissions
An informative article from the Earth Institute’s Climate Matters blog about the way in which advances in agricultural production have changed the dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions related to agriculture. Read more here.

Climate Change, Food Security, and Water

A look at the interconnection of food security and climatic changes, such as increased drought and changing weather patterns, at the recent FAO summit in Rome. Read more at Circle of Blue Waternews.

In the backroom of the Barcelona round of negotiations leading up to Copenhagen, a small group convened to discuss the role of freshwater security in addressing climate change. It has been a difficult item to get on the agenda. International climate negotiations are packed with political interests vying for exposure and consideration, and water is as politically sensitive a topic as any. But it is also one of the most important, and linking the two issues is a necessary next step.

Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/suburbanbloke/

Water strikes a chord with us. More so than global warming and climate change, water security is a conceptually more tangible and alarming challenge to the vast majority of people around the planet. It is immediate. It is health and sanitation, food security, and living with floods and drought. When water is compromised the consequences are far reaching. Whether supplying water for agricultural, industrial, or energy production, balancing rural and urban water demand, transporting and treating supplies, or ensuring water delivery to maintain healthy ecosystem functioning, without water, costs go up across the board.

Framing Water Security

How water security challenges manifest themselves in terms of human water needs range in scope and severity. Water security can be an issue of physical scarcity driven by climatic, geographical, or human consumption, or it can be economic, and a result of poor access to the freshwater resources that are available. Sometimes there is too little water (see drought), but other times, there is too much (see flooding). Hundreds of thousands around the world have died over the last 15 – 20 years as a result of floods, drought, and mudslides. More often than not, it is a quality issue caused by pollution and even natural sources of contamination. Indeed, more than a billion people lack access to safe drinking water, and even more are without basic sanitation. Across the globe, humans are withdrawing far more water than can be naturally replenished through the water cycle.

Many of these risks, much less the deaths they cause, are preventable. Environmental drivers do compromise our water security, but most challenges they create are compounded by human factors. Mismanagement and poor infrastructure (see institutional capacity) inhibits people and governments from addressing the problems in a manner that balances the hydrological and ecological constraints of natural water availability with human demand. This makes the sustainable use and management of freshwater resources an enormous priority, regardless of whether you factor climate change into the dynamic. As population continues to increase across the planet, water consumption will keep growing with it. An equal expansion of our freshwater supplies, however, will not accompany that growth.

Global Water Withdrawal and Consumption

The Water Data

Freshwater availability comes with a few huge caveats. While there is roughly 1.4 billion km3 of water on the planet, the vast majority, or 97.5%, is in the oceans in the form of salt water that is unfit for human consumption without first taking the salt out of it, a costly, environmentally intensive method called desalination.

Freshwater, the remaining 2.5%, is what humans (and other land based organisms) depend on for survival. Freshwater is not evenly distributed across the planet, it varies in both quantity and quality where it is found. Roughly 70% of freshwater is found in glaciers, snow, and ice, but most in areas largely inaccessible to the vast majority of us, like Antarctica and Greenland. Another 30% is groundwater – the greatest source of available freshwater for human consumption.

Source: UN Water

Only .3% of the freshwater on the planet, an estimated 105,000 km3, is the water that we find in rivers, streams and lakes. Combining these surface and groundwater sources, there is about 200,000 km3 of freshwater supplies available for human and ecosystem consumption. This is still less than 1% of all freshwater resources. Increases in melt flow and precipitation still need to be captured and stored – which is currently not the case in most places. Of concern is that groundwater supplies are not easily replenished, and if the hydrological cycle is disrupted enough, aquifers can be exhausted. Freshwater is finite, and with continued (see projected) global increases in population, hyper-water stress is likely in many regions.

Now, back to climate change

The overwhelming focus in addressing climate change and the build-up of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere has been on the energy implications. How our energy consumption and sources have driven the problem, what alternatives will best alleviate it, and how do we transition toward these alternatives in a cost-effective and sustainable manner. This is an essential and enormous part of the challenge – without an aggressive strategy to reduce GHG and transition toward a carbon-less economy, there is no seriousness to the effort and the task at hand.

But if transforming the dynamics of our energy supplies and consumption is the primary challenge of mitigating climate change, effectively managing our freshwater resources in a manner that balances both ecological and human needs is a principal challenge in efforts to adapt to climate change’s impacts. Water is the medium through which many of the consequences of climate change will be most acutely felt. Increasing variation in flood and drought cycles, changing precipitation patterns, more extreme weather events, vulnerability to sea level rise and saltwater intrusion, and of course vanquished glaciers, are the realities of a changing global climate (see IPCC Fourth Technical Assessment and the Technical Paper on Water and Climate Change here).

These changes will have dramatic impacts on livelihoods. The consequences will be greatest in the areas that are most vulnerable, many of which currently lack the resources to take steps toward climate resilience on their own. There is the prospect of mass migrations of people from regions where water resources are increasingly compromised to others where there is less stress. Asia is a case in point. The Himalayas provide freshwater resources for roughly a billion people – if these sources were to significantly retreat across the span of several decades, there could be dire repercussions. All these scenarios have very real costs and consequences – economic, environmental, and human.

Copenhagen and beyond

Which is why it makes sense to prioritize sustainable water resources management as a pillar of global adaptation efforts. More than ever, we have an opportunity to make water the priority it deserves to be. A first step would to more accurately assess the situation at hand. Water consumption data should be as good as energy data (water data is notoriously bad and highly variable across different regions). Groundwater resources need to be monitored much more carefully, and new techniques for conserving supplies deployed where they are needed. By focusing on the challenges of each respective region, and at a watershed and basin level, we can prioritize the sort of interventions and projects that will be necessary where they are needed most. Improving water storage and transportation infrastructure is only going to be more and more important as supplies decrease and demand continues to grow. At a micro level, enhancing community level programs to improve local water conditions can pay huge dividends, especially for the women and children who are most directly affected by water stress.

Adaptation should not be seen as just building sea walls, there is a whole suite of strategies that we need to consider and then deploy. Many of them are linked to water use. Evidence suggests that water stress is also more likely to facilitate transnational cooperation. And cooperation is the only way we are going to get anywhere these days.

Sources:

UN Water Statistics Division: http://www.unwater.org/statistics.html

UNEP Vital Water Statistics: http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/index.html

Circle of Blue Waternews: http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/

The Pacific Institute: http://www.pacinst.org/

IPCC: http://www.ipcc.ch/

Source: DWR (http://www.water.ca.gov/newsroom/photo/ag/groundwater_banking1.jpg)

Last week California passed a landmark water package. In a state facing its third year of drought it is an important step, but before the state’s political leaders congratulate themselves on a job well done, we should remind ourselves that it just that, a step. The state’s aging water infrastructure and conveyance system are still decades overdue for repair, some levees dangerously so, and the ecological condition of the state’s important waterways are still severely compromised – passing the bills through begins the work ahead, it does not complete it. California is still a major earthquake away from a water crisis becoming something much more. Supply is still projected to decline. Passing the water package is an important step toward accelerating the work that needs to be done, and whether that will actually come to pass remains to be seen.

Efforts to restructure the state’s water laws and policies have been highly contentious. What has emerged is a series of compromises from both sides, but with some important priority areas relatively intact. The water package will establish caps on overall water usage, dramatically increase Delta restoration efforts, as well as create a Delta Plan and Stewardship Council to oversee governance of the waterway. It will also move the state toward stricter groundwater monitoring and enforcement of illegal diversions. A bond measure costing roughly $11 billion to finance many of these programs will go before voters next November.

The bill’s effectiveness remains to be seen, and as some experts have pointed out, it still leaves some important questions unanswered. As Peter Gleick points out in a recent piece, the bill didn’t quite go far enough – it is lacking effective accounting for all water use across the state, a means to ensure that governing bodies have the resources and authority to make good on the governance needs for water use in the Delta, as well as any sort of framework to move the state toward requiring a user fee for our water consumption. Not to mention the issue of a new peripheral canal to improve water conveyance to water users in southern parts of the state.

Given the divisiveness and heated debate that our efforts at water reform have stirred up, how do we stay focused on the issue? This is important because how the state plans to follow through on the bill is where things really get interesting, and will be a determining factor in California’s water future.

Here are some items in the news that we found this past week that are worth a read:

At the Intersection of Conflict and Environment
What is the role of natural resources and the environment in conflict and post conflict settings? Watch an interview with David Jensen by Geoff Dabelko at the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program. David is a Policy Manager at UNEP’s Post Conflict and Disaster Management Branch, and the interview focuses on his work and experiences in this cutting edge and very important field.

Did Kyoto Work?
In looking forward to the negotiations for a new climate treaty in Copenhagen, how well has the Kyoto Protocol (set to expire in 2012) done in its objectives? Kyoto Climate Treaty’s Greenhouse ‘Success’ at Science News has all the answers.

The Freakout over Superfreakanomics
Steve Levitt, author of Freakanomics, went to Neil’s high school. While we both enjoyed his first book, his latest effort, Superfreakanomics, has stirred up controversy because of a chapter called ‘Global Cooling’  that appears to be riddled with climate science errors. An open letter to Steve Levitt by a colleague of his at the University of Chicago (posted at Real Climate) takes aim at one incorrect assertion of the chapter – that the use of solar panels is detrimental to the climate because they are black and absorb sunlight, thereby contributing to global warming. The author of the letter uses simple arithmetic and a fair dose of dry humor to get his point across, and it is an excellent read.

Climate Change – Who Wins, Who Loses?
Which societies will fare best in a world increasingly altered by climate change? Read an interesting piece at Yale360 by Gaia Vince, the former news editor at Nature, about some of the factors that will shape how different societies adapt to a changing global environment.

Landmark Water Reform in California
California has passed a historic water bill after months of political back and forth. The bill puts caps on overall water usage across the state. Is it the best bill, could California have done better, and what obstacles remain? Hear what Peter Gleick, President of the Pacific Institute, has to say about it.

Coal Bites the Dust
Another coal power plant proposal is canceled – this time in Minnesota and South Dakota.

   California’s Central Valley reaches about 400 miles, from Bakersfield in the south to Redding in the north, encompassing a stretch of land roughly the size of Tennessee. The region is also home to some of the most fertile and productive soils in the world.

Over millennia, sedimentation from the Sierra Nevada mountains to the east has been deposited into the valley below through annual snow melt and run-off, delivering rich silt into what is now an expansive and elaborate system of farms and burgeoning towns. From the sky high above on a clear day, the view below is one of beautiful earthen hues; an organic patchwork quilt of land and streams, farms and reservoirs, and threaded by aqueducts and roads.

Agricultural production is big business in this part of the world, and understandably so, California is the world’s fifth largest exporter of agricultural goods. One need only take a quick stroll to their local grocery store to find proof; about half of all fruits, vegetables and nuts stocked on shelves across the US are coming from the Golden State.

But California is also a thirsty state, and one that is in the third year of an extreme drought that has placed increasing stress on a complicated myriad of water rights, laws, and an aging and outdated network of storage and distribution infrastructure. Reservoirs are low throughout the state, particularly in the fertile Central Valley, and there is growing concern and frustrations mounting over the inability of lawmakers in Sacramento to work out a deal to more effectively manage and maintain the state’s freshwater resources.

Chronic water stress is the likely outcome. The costs, in economic and environmental terms, could be devastating if the state is unable to find creative ways to both conserve and distribute the precious albeit dwindling resource. Even without drought, 75% of rainfall in the state falls north of the capital, Sacramento, while 75% of the demand lies to the south. Some climate models predict California may lose upwards of 40% of its annual Sierra Nevada snow pack by 2050, an important source of natural storage, due to regional climate change impacts. In other words, in an already dire situation, the worst may be yet to come.

There is plenty of talk regarding the 21^st century’s “looming water wars,” and it often presents a scary vision, a world that is both flooded and thirsty. However, in the hype we lose sight of the realities that many water stressed regions actually face. The conflicts that some say will embroil entire nations are far less likely to erupt like geysers and spill across borders with tidal force than they are to emerge at the basin level. More level heads are needed in this debate.

Water conflicts are frequently realized at very local levels, and sometimes in rather indirect and obtuse ways. It is the farmer and the urban dweller, the stream and the aqueduct, the levee and the wetland, the fishery and the harvest, the inevitable flood and the track housing. It is your food prices and your taxes, your energy bill and your health, your overpriced and under-screened bottled water. It is your morning shower.

Which brings us back to the view from above. California’s agricultural water needs are increasingly at odds with its growing population, expanding urban areas, and the development projects that accompany them.

A drive down Interstate 5 reveals such tension, as broken farms and failing crops thirst toward what have become dry irrigation canals and empty field reservoirs against the backdrop of pale straw colored hills and dust cyclones. The Sacramento-San Joaguin River Delta that feeds into the San Francisco Bay, the largest estuary on the west coast that supplies millions of Californians with water for agricultural and domestic uses, has been neglected and mismanaged. It’s aging system of levees puts the entire region at risk.

There is no easy answer, which is why it will be important to take note of what happens next in California’s efforts at water reform. Both people and agriculture are competing with the hydrological demands of a dynamic physical environment, an elaborate system of watersheds that enabled its very existence to begin with. It’s a delicate balance.